Uptrip is currently promoting a total of five flight prizes with Discover Airlines. It is a good opportunity to evaluate the chances of winning on Uptrip.
To participate in this specific contest, three cards must be redeemed, including two original cards. Since cards are relatively easy to get and the joker card is also available, the entry barrier is quite low. Therefore, a large part of the Uptrip user base could at least theoretically join.
According to Uptrip, there are around 300,000 active users. What matters for the chance to win is not this number, but how many actually take part. Let’s start with two rough scenarios.
Assumptions for the Calculation
- A total of five winners
- Every entry has the same chance of winning
- One entry per person
- 300,000 active users as a base
Two Realistic Scenarios Compared
Low Participation
Participation rate: 10%
Participants: 30,000
Number of prizes: 5
Chance to win: 1 in 6,000
High Participation
Participation rate: 50%
Participants: 150,000
Number of prizes: 5
Chance to win: 1 in 30,000
The number of participants is likely to fall within this range. For comparison, we can look at previous contest participation. During the Refer a Friend campaign, the user base was slightly smaller (~200,000 to 250,000). Only about 15,000 people took part (<10%). However, the entry barrier was higher at that time.
Comparison with a Previous Airline Contest
To better understand the chances, we can look at a recent contest from Discover Airlines on Instagram: “Touchdown trip to Tampa!”.
| Contest | Participants | Winners | Chance to win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Discover Airlines Instagram contest | approx. 1,000 | 1 | 1 in 1,000 |
| Uptrip (assumed 10% participation) | 30,000 | 5 | 1 in 6,000 |
| Uptrip (assumed 50% participation) | 150,000 | 5 | 1 in 30,000 |
Evaluate the Chances of Winning on Uptrip
First, compared to the Instagram contest, it should be mentioned that Uptrip also gives away Business Class tickets. The contest is therefore partially more valuable.
However, the chances of winning are clearly lower. Still, they are not bad overall. We think that the participation rate is likely around 15-20%, which corresponds to a rough chance of winning of 1 in 10,000.
Since participation is free, there are many reasons to take part, as long as you have the necessary cards.
